Undecided voters overwhelmingly believe the country is off on the wrong track: 83 percent of those undecided on the generic ballot say so. 6. The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning. Jun. 7. The forecast for the 2024 presidential election appears in the chart. 4% Democrat. S. Sixty-two percent of generic-ballot undecideds disapprove. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. RCP Poll Average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. Joe Biden Approval. Read More ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty - FrankRamspott The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. com. But as of this week, after tying. Download the data. Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 4 points with Election Day less than six weeks away, according to a new poll. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Methodology Sources. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process that will be finished by November 8th. 4 percentage point over-prediction of Democratic strength. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. It really looks like anything short of winning both chambers = democracy will not survive 2024 . and the generic ballot test, in particular. Club for Growth (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. But those days are over. Emerson. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. ESTIMATE. Ron DeSantis’s 538 polling average in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. 9. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. 2020. Download. 8, 2022. Download the data. For instance, Omar and Samuels didn’t debate, and despite amassing a sizable war chest of her. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Josh Christenson. WPA Intelligence. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 47%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. So I believe that yes the generic ballot could revert back, but on average, the movement is smaller, something close to R+1-R+2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2024 Republican Debates. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In testing this. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. 3 points, according to. 5 percent for Republicans. Ballotpedia includes comprehensive election information for the largest 100 cities by population, as well as all state legislative, statewide, and congressional races across the nation. 11/18 - 11/19. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. avg. S. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 0 percent to 42. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 5 GOP (R) +2. A Look At The Generic Ballot. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Biden Harvard-Harris Trump 53, Biden 47 Trump +6 General Election: Trump vs. 804 A. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Filed under 2020 Election. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. V. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 2 42. 11, 2023. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. 48%. Democrats +2. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2024 election guide: Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for November 5, 2024 In 2018, the prediction was right on target. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Earlier this month in Louisiana, State Attorney General Jeff Landry won the jungle primary with a bare majority of votes, avoiding a November runoff he almost certainly would have won. Find the latest poll numbers from. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. Trump. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%. 9 percentage points (44. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Democrats +2. On average, Democrats trailed by. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. 3 . The average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. And it's been even more accurate in recent midterms, when. Download the data. November 16, 2023, 7:48 AM 2:10 What the Democrats’ wins could mean for 2024 After a disappointing election night for Republicans, what does th. Democrats (D) +7. All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Nov. 0. The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. S. 7. 5 The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 27%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. (SDCL. Download the data. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Biden. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. Andy Beshear is a Democratic Party candidate for office. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. SCOTUS Congress Facts First 2024 Elections. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. 508 LV. Filed under 2020 Election. 3Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In late October, 538 ’s generic ballot average began moving in favor of Republicans. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. . Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 4% Democrat 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Aug. The two most recent high quality polls have Rs at anywhere between 38 and 47 % (polls done by YouGov and Quinnipiac). Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. More in 2024 Election. ”. +25. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 1 Oct. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. 2 point swing. Trump. In November 2023, we made. 42%. Generic ballot polling average. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public. 6 . The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. For example, here are the 2020 results. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. Download the data. Biden EPIC-MRA. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. LV. We use numbers to express uncertainty. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. Download. 3. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 4. 3 . Biden. We’ve collected 162 generic ballot polls so far. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. 300: LV: Aug. Someone suggested that the difference is in how the question is asked. Download the data. Download the data. University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science, WCVB-TV (Boston) Trump. The result was a. 68%. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. Most recent cycle. WPA Intelligence. The polling tracker lets you do a lot with our huge database of polls, but for some polling nerds, it isn’t enough. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. Classic. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. U. 5. Download the data. 41%. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have asked voters whether they want. 43. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 3, 2020. S. Former President Donald J. Sort by date. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have. Download. Democrats (D) April July October 2014 April July October 38. The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. 3%. 46%. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. 0 percent). According to a RealClearPolitics-style** average of generic congressional ballot polls (i. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. The latest with redistricting. Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45. Generic ballot; Trump approval; Search for a race or candidate + Back to the national overview. Washington, DC, August 2, 2022. Download the data. 9 points. Download the data. 78%. Nov. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. David Schweikert won his race by less than 1. By Ashley. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 47%. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Click on your candidates to read their biography, view past election. January 1, 2024 . In 2010, the Republican turnout advantage amounted to the equivalent of 6 percentage points, meaning a tie on the generic ballot among registered voters translated into a six-point Republican lead. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. +5. 0. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. 3. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. Polls analyzed. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Download the data. involved in the Jan. 45. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 8 percent). Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Primaries by state. 42. 182. Democratic Gov. Trump. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. The Republican Party currently controls the U. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Ahead of the U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 3. 68%. S. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 4. Generic ballot polling average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Download the data. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. 950 RV. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. 6% Masters 47. Not running. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they will win the election outright. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. 2024 Republican Debates. 0. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. On Wednesday morning, another generic ballot poll, from Selzer & Co. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. 11-13. That. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. The generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they’ll vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — informs the FiveThirtyEight Senate models in a fashion. Louisiana Governor - Open Primary WAFB-TV/Mason-Dixon Landry 40, Wilson 24, Waguespack 9, Lundy 4, Schroeder 3, Hewitt 2, Nelson Landry +16 Louisiana Governor Runoff Election - Landry vs. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. 2% Republican 45. July 14-25. News. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 748. 12-16. 154 RV.